Cyprus: A New Page?

Doğukan Atmaca

Between April 27-29, 5+1 (Turkish Cypriots – Greek Cypriots – Greece – Turkey – UK and UN) informal meeting on Cyprus was held in Geneva. This was the first gathering since the 2017 Crans Montana Talks which ended without any resolution. That time, the bi-zonal,bi-communal federation (BBF) was on the table for discussion between GC leader Nikos Anastasiades and TC leader Mustafa Akıncı. This time in Geneva, the Turkish side, with newly elected leader Ersin Tatar, proposed a two-state solution and announced that they are not willing to lose another fifty-three years by negotiating for a federation. On the other hand, the Greek side supported a continuation of negotiations for BBF from where they left Crans Montana. Both Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Turkish Cypriot leader Tatar stated that they are not intended to step back from their proposed two-state solution. Under the current trend, will this new standing of the Turkish side affect the future of the island? How should we understand this position taken by Tatar?

Firstly, after Crans Montana failure, Tatar’s predecessor Akinci, mentioned that he was elected for his BBF promises and he would not discuss any other option including a unification under a unitary state. However, now Northern Cyprus, under Tatar’s leadership, announced that they will not discuss any other option but only two-state which means international political equality with Greek Cypriots. Tatar considers that they have lost half a century by negotiating for unification or federation, and the topic has lost its real value. Therefore, international recognition of the division should be welcomed by the three guarantor states (Greece, Turkey, and the UK) and the UN, as well. As stated also in his six-point proposal, the two sides could continue negotiations only under equal conditions which can only be provided by international recognition.

Any kind of unification, either BBF or unitary, seems extremely hard as the sides have never been close enough to remove their greatest concerns such as, for the Greek side, the Treaty of Guarantees providing the guarantor states right to intervene the island, and removal of Turkish troops; for the Turkish side, political equality, and share of executive and legislative powers. According to the Greek side, Turks can join back to the Republic after a constitutional amendment and obtaining some minority rights. However, this is unacceptable for Turks since they are already recognized as the co-owners and co-founders of the RoC according to the constitution and international agreements (Zurich and London, 1959-1960). On the other hand, many Turkish Cypriots consider Turkey and its military presence as the sole security while Greek Cypriots consider the Turkish army as an occupier foreign force on the island.

While the discussions have been held for roughly half a century, and the separation has become sharper as the bi-lingual Turkish and Greek communities now communicate in English, even though Turkish is still kept as one of the official languages. Moreover, both sides are now used to living with a separation reality. Both communities have less in common, especially after the EU accession of the South in 2004.

Therefore, Tatar’s and the Turkish side’s demand for a two-state solution actually is just to officialize and formalize the de facto situation since there are already two separate governmental bodies on the island. Turkish side went to Geneva and they knew that their demand would be rejected by all the parts except the UK which neither strongly opposed nor supported the proposal.

By bringing a certain demand for the recognition of the separation signals that a new page in the Cyprus dispute might show up. Previously, even during the founder president of TRNC Rauf Denktas, the sides always met for a unification talk, and bringing a solution into the dispute has always occupied a significant political narrative in the North as without international recognition they can only trade with Turkey but not with the rest of the world. Akinci was regarded as the last hope for federal unification, but Tatar remarks a turn in Turkish Cypriot policy. He signals that he will focus on establishing relations with other states which may recognize TRNC such as Azerbaijan after solving the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute and the Libyan National Accord Government who is allied with Turkey economically, militarily, and so geopolitically with the maritime borders agreement last year, or the UK where around 300,000 Turkish Cypriots are settled. In fact, TRNC was recognized by Pakistan and Bangladesh after its declaration of independence in 1983, but both countries had to step back after UNSC pressure. On the other hand, Turkey, which is the only UN member state recognizing TRNC is not subject to any sanctions from the UN.

Tatar’s presidency and the Turkish Cypriot government, which is formed by Tatar’s former National Unity Party (UBP) have already been conducting some cultural events with Azerbaijan and announced their support during the recent Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia. The UK who was represented by the foreign minister Dominic Raab in Geneva Talks did not falsify the Sunday Express Whitehall cited claim that the UK government would consider lifting a direct flight embargo to the North if the Geneva Talks end without any sign of resolution. Such an action from the UK, which is a permanent member of the UNSC, would be a significant step for Cyprus agenda. However, the UK government may face Greek Cypriot diaspora protests while receiving support from the Turkish Cypriots diaspora.

For over half a century, the Cyprus issue has been an extremely hard one in the region together with the Israel-Palestine dispute, the sides could never reach a satisfying agreement and it seems like this repetition of the status quo has led the separation to become deeper and Turkish side who suffers from being an unrecognized entity now is willing to accept the reality and determine its own way without their Greek counterparts.